On the same week that analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald issued a favourable forecast for AST SpaceMobile, and helped by an advert at the February 9th Super Bowl, it emerged that AST does not need quite so many satellites to serve North America, pushing its share price up by 17.5 per cent to $31.14 per share.

Scott Wisniewski, president and Chief Strategy Officer at AST, and following on from orbital connectivity tests, says an initial fleet of just 20 satellites (and five are already in orbit) “should be enough to get AST to break-even cashflow”.

He continued: “With 40 to 50 satellites we feel we will be very much on the front foot and positioned to win. We’ll add more, but it will be demand-based”. The first five were launched in September 2024.

AST is currently building 17 extra satellites and has launch agreements in place with SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin to launch up to 60 craft. AST has FCC permission to launch up to 250 satellites for full global coverage.

Wisniewski’s comments assume ‘half-day’ service over North America, and this will be the case until the fleet is fully populated. Wisniewski says the company’s five orbiting satellites could provide a total of 30 minutes of coverage a day for any particular location.

But his “20 satellite” calculation is five fewer than previously assumed. For full coverage of key markets AST is now saying that instead of the previous 45-60 craft needed in orbit, AST can manage with 40-50. Those key markets are the US, Europe in General, and Japan.

Deutsche Bank’s Bryan Kraft is a major optimist on AST’s prospects, with a $53 target price for the stock with a projection for nearly $5 billion in yearly revenue by 2030. Kraft predicts that 12 million people will subscribe for supplemental satellite cell service at $10 a month, with another 300 million paying $5 a day for occasional day passes. Some 125 million others in the developing nations will pay $1 a month to use AST satellites as their primary broadband connection, Kraft suggests.

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Tags: AST SpaceMobile, Deutsche Bank, satellite